On Conspiracy Theories
None of Them are True
Note: the correct terminology for an unsubstantiated theory regarding aliens, presidential assassinations, centuries-old institutions, or Bigfoot is “conspiracy theory” (ex. “The idea that the aliens built the pyramids is a conspiracy theory.”). The term for when a group of individuals collude on a nefarious plot is “conspiracy” (ex. “Don Corleone’s enemies organized a conspiracy against his life.”). Oftentimes, when we say, “that’s a conspiracy,” what we mean is, “that’s a conspiracy theory.”
Despite the fact that I’ve written stories with a conspiratorial bent, I don’t actually believe in any conspiracy theories. I find them humorous, but rarely plausible. The closest I come are the following:
It seems almost as likely that Jeffrey Epstein was murdered as that he killed himself. It isn’t a rare event for gangs to murder someone in prison, and a guy with ties to the criminal underground probably has more than a few enemies. I highly doubt any such murder would have been ordered by [fill-in-your-preferred politician/billionaire/duke/entertainer/media figure/etc.]. The most likely explanation, though, seems to be that he did kill himself and that he paid anyone in a position to intervene to turn a blind eye.
I think it more likely than not that the coronavirus originated in a lab. Technically speaking, this isn’t a conspiracy theory, given that it has been extensively reported upon by such outlets as The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, New York Magazine, Vanity Fair, and National Review, as well as by reputable freelance journalists, members of the British Parliament, and mainstream scientists. Two U.S. intelligence agencies think that it did, while four think it was of natural origin. Still, there remain some scientists and journalists who insist that this is a hoax.
I am agnostic on the subject of whether or not aliens have visited the Earth or the solar system at some time in the past. It seems more likely than not that intelligent life exists in the universe. It seems unlikely it has visited recently, although undetected robotic Von Neumann probes somewhere among the outer planets are impossible to totally dismiss.1 It also seems unlikely that aliens visited in the distant past, although given the fact that none less than Iosif Schklovsky and Carl Sagan devoted a chapter in their book, Intelligent Life in the Universe, to the possibility, it can’t totally be ruled a conspiracy theory.
The reason conspiracy theories fall apart isn’t that everything the mainstream press prints is solid gold, or that politicians and government agencies never lie, or that people don’t try to do bad things behind the scenes. It’s that human beings are shockingly bad at keeping secrets.
“But,” some of you will tell me, “Lockheed Martin and the U.S. Government kept the SR-71 project a secret for a very long time.” It is the exception that proves the rule. Most secrets get out, and most high-level secret coordination fails.
There is a further reason why conspiracy theories fall apart. Real-life conspiracies (which are always more mundane and less grandiose than the imaginary variety) fall apart. People who try to orchestrate things behind the scenes fail. The human beings who try to manipulate events, or mastermind plots, or pull hidden strings usually prove themselves inept. Watergate and MK-ULTRA weren’t the stuff of spy novels. They were cases of human incompetence.
The final reason, which is related to the first two, is that the world simply doesn’t work in a way that would make conspiring at grand scale possible, because it doesn’t allow much of any complicated coordination at grand scale to work. People behind the scenes aren’t in control of events because nobody is in control of events, because the nature of events and the nature of human knowledge forecloses the possibility that human beings could ever control events beyond an extraordinarily limited degree.
Naivete:
Conspiracy theorists like to pretend that other people are simply naïve. “Cui bono?” they say.
In reality, it is the conspiratorial who are naïve. They believe that it is possible for humans to have control over sprawling yet hidden enterprises, and this is more deeply naïve than almost anything said by anyone who takes most of life on face value. The conspiratorial-minded need a myth of control. They need to believe that someone is really running the show, because they struggle to comprehend the idea that nobody is, that the show merely happens, that it is impossible for anyone to control the show.
Cui bono? It doesn’t matter who benefits. Asking that question assumes that the person who benefits could manage to manipulate things to ensure he or she will benefit, when it is more likely the case that he or she got lucky.